* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE AL032007 07/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 52 53 51 49 40 30 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 52 53 51 49 40 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 28 26 24 23 23 22 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 23 26 39 52 70 68 31 32 40 40 40 SHEAR DIR 261 234 229 252 244 245 243 238 243 237 228 220 225 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.5 24.8 22.1 16.6 11.3 11.9 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 121 106 91 77 74 68 97 87 87 90 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 104 93 82 73 72 65 92 74 74 77 78 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -52.4 -51.9 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 63 59 50 42 47 43 46 46 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 19 18 20 26 30 27 24 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 12 13 37 80 111 146 -17 -13 -30 -21 9 200 MB DIV 59 52 57 85 78 43 48 46 6 31 32 27 10 LAND (KM) 767 683 603 473 400 282 231 1181 577 607 640 676 740 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.6 41.0 44.1 47.7 51.9 41.5 41.3 41.2 41.3 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 65.6 64.7 63.4 62.0 57.5 49.7 37.2 53.7 51.9 50.7 49.2 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 20 28 39 17 37 6 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 16. 12. 9. 8. 4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 6. 8. 12. 15. 12. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 23. 24. 22. 20. 11. 2. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 10. 0. -15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL032007 THREE 07/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032007 THREE 07/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY