* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 07/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 37 46 56 64 67 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 37 46 56 64 67 71 75 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 41 49 57 63 69 61 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 5 3 4 8 1 13 8 19 13 12 12 SHEAR DIR 82 68 54 38 69 359 58 343 317 326 295 327 220 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 140 140 141 144 143 146 143 144 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 141 143 143 143 146 145 148 145 144 180 180 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 11 9 11 9 14 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 60 61 62 56 59 57 60 59 62 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 60 53 45 38 28 15 25 19 46 61 78 -36 200 MB DIV 18 23 0 16 15 10 -3 25 -2 -17 13 15 -7 LAND (KM) 698 668 651 663 671 450 309 333 365 245 296 336 -46 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 14.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.4 51.7 53.1 54.5 57.4 60.3 63.5 66.6 69.8 73.1 75.8 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 16 15 42 72 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 5 7 4 5 4 5 3 6 3 3 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 36. 44. 48. 52. 57. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 26. 36. 44. 47. 51. 55. 57. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY