* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 07/31/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 41 45 44 46 44 46 46
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 41 45 44 46 44 46 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 30 29 28 27 26
SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 11 5 7 7 6 5 6 2 8 11 6
SHEAR DIR 71 79 85 86 59 82 71 65 102 183 226 253 116
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.9 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.7 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 144 143 134 117 112 105 101 99 103 138
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 6
700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 54 56 49 43 33 26 25 23 26 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 11 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 5 6 10 31 52 60 36 33 34 20 -16
200 MB DIV 21 41 53 40 54 36 23 35 6 0 -2 -2 -24
LAND (KM) 1548 1604 1657 1712 1777 1924 2054 2228 1961 1690 1434 1224 1205
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.5 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.6 19.9 13.2
LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.4 122.6 124.0 125.3 128.0 130.8 133.5 136.2 138.7 141.1 143.1 145.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 19 36
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 6. 9. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 24. 22. 23. 19. 21. 21.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 16. 20. 19. 21. 19. 21. 21.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY