*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *  THREE       AL032007  07/31/07  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    31    34    36    40    48    53    58    61    58    50    41    27
V (KT) LAND       30    31    34    36    40    47    52    57    60    57    49    40    25
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    31    32    32    31    32    33    35    39    42    45

SHEAR (KTS)       10    21    20    22    32    51    59    64    46    40    32    39    42
SHEAR DIR        235   212   235   221   221   219   234   237   222   215   214   215   208
SST (C)         26.8  25.9  23.0  18.3  15.2  10.7  10.2  12.5  13.7  13.5  13.3  11.5   7.9
POT. INT. (KT)   125   117    97    82    77    73    70    69    68    67    68    66    65
ADJ. POT. INT.   109   103    89    78    74    71    69    66    64    64    64    64    63
200 MB T (C)   -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -53.4 -51.0 -48.1 -46.3 -46.0 -45.6 -45.8 -45.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     5     5     3     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     72    68    61    56    52    47    59    63    54    55    68    67    67
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    11    13    13    16    18    17    21    26    25    18    15    13
850 MB ENV VOR     5   -10    -4    27    39    94   151   179   189   179   212   213   183
200 MB DIV        45    49    54    38    29    60    53    69    89    58    31     3  -113
LAND (KM)        674   544   401   292   190   446  1124  1459  1229  1093   999   925   930
LAT (DEG N)     36.9  38.7  40.5  42.9  45.2  50.3  54.9  57.6  58.8  60.2  62.4  64.3  66.2
LONG(DEG W)     65.6  64.2  62.8  59.6  56.3  47.4  38.9  32.4  27.9  24.4  21.5  17.5  12.1
STM SPEED (KT)    18    21    27    33    36    37    29    18    12    12    13    14    14
HEAT CONTENT       2     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15      CX,CY:   5/ 14
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  676  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  31.8 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  38.0 (MEAN=69.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         2.   4.   7.  11.  18.  23.  24.  24.  23.  25.  23.  17.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   1.   1.   3.   3.   3.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   3.   5.   4.   7.  11.  10.   5.   2.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   6.   7.   9.  11.  12.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   7.  11.  20.  24.  29.  32.  29.  21.  13.   0.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   4.   6.  10.  18.  23.  28.  31.  28.  20.  11.  -3.

   ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX   AL032007 THREE      07/31/07  06 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  20.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  43.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  60.6 Range:  8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.0 Range: 57.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  31.8 Range: 37.5 to   5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 
 Scaled RI index=    2.8 Prob of RI=   4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
 Discrim RI index=   2.9 Prob of RI=   3% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032007 THREE      07/31/07  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY