* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE AL032007 07/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 40 48 53 58 61 58 50 41 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 40 47 52 57 60 57 49 40 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 32 33 35 39 42 45 SHEAR (KTS) 10 21 20 22 32 51 59 64 46 40 32 39 42 SHEAR DIR 235 212 235 221 221 219 234 237 222 215 214 215 208 SST (C) 26.8 25.9 23.0 18.3 15.2 10.7 10.2 12.5 13.7 13.5 13.3 11.5 7.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 117 97 82 77 73 70 69 68 67 68 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 89 78 74 71 69 66 64 64 64 64 63 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -53.4 -51.0 -48.1 -46.3 -46.0 -45.6 -45.8 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 68 61 56 52 47 59 63 54 55 68 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 13 16 18 17 21 26 25 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -10 -4 27 39 94 151 179 189 179 212 213 183 200 MB DIV 45 49 54 38 29 60 53 69 89 58 31 3 -113 LAND (KM) 674 544 401 292 190 446 1124 1459 1229 1093 999 925 930 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.7 40.5 42.9 45.2 50.3 54.9 57.6 58.8 60.2 62.4 64.3 66.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 64.2 62.8 59.6 56.3 47.4 38.9 32.4 27.9 24.4 21.5 17.5 12.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 27 33 36 37 29 18 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 23. 24. 24. 23. 25. 23. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 7. 11. 10. 5. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 20. 24. 29. 32. 29. 21. 13. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 23. 28. 31. 28. 20. 11. -3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL032007 THREE 07/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032007 THREE 07/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY