* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 07/31/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 40 45 46 49 48 46 44
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 40 45 46 49 48 46 44
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 31 31 31 30 29 27
SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 7 7 5 6 6 8 7 3 11 20 15
SHEAR DIR 80 80 72 39 53 26 60 94 176 297 228 272 293
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 26.7 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.9 24.3 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 144 143 132 118 116 110 104 103 106 109
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 57 56 45 44 36 28 28 30 22 25
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 12 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -8 -6 6 18 50 65 80 54 40 22 15
200 MB DIV 33 41 27 29 10 22 31 55 23 -16 -7 -13 -18
LAND (KM) 1607 1651 1704 1768 1842 1990 2134 2172 1866 1563 1252 943 797
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 20.1 20.9
LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.8 126.1 128.8 131.6 134.4 137.2 140.0 142.9 145.8 147.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 18. 24. 25. 26. 23. 21. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 0. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 15. 20. 21. 24. 23. 21. 19.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY