* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CHANTAL AL032007 07/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 54 60 65 71 73 66 59 42 24 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 58 64 70 71 65 57 40 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 45 44 42 40 39 40 43 46 45 43 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 28 29 38 53 52 42 36 40 38 39 30 SHEAR DIR 216 229 220 224 214 216 244 244 223 212 217 217 199 SST (C) 25.2 21.2 17.2 15.1 12.0 11.2 12.3 12.9 13.5 13.5 12.0 10.0 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 88 78 75 74 74 71 65 65 69 67 62 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 81 74 73 72 72 68 62 61 65 65 60 59 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -52.8 -50.6 -48.2 -46.5 -45.8 -45.4 -46.0 -46.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 62 55 50 45 51 71 58 51 64 67 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 15 19 19 21 29 33 29 26 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 44 49 60 116 123 142 192 249 272 163 76 200 MB DIV 43 52 53 28 41 34 59 97 71 78 36 -48 -34 LAND (KM) 490 388 241 161 43 940 1471 1310 1229 1067 841 770 680 LAT (DEG N) 39.3 41.4 43.4 45.4 47.4 52.9 58.3 60.0 59.6 60.3 63.4 64.1 63.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 61.6 59.5 55.9 52.3 41.3 32.4 28.5 27.3 23.9 16.9 13.5 12.3 STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 29 32 39 40 25 7 6 16 15 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 25 CX,CY: 11/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 24. 18. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 13. 16. 13. 10. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 26. 32. 34. 29. 21. 4. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 14. 20. 25. 31. 33. 26. 19. 2. -16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL032007 CHANTAL 07/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032007 CHANTAL 07/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY