* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 07/31/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 63 66 69 71 75 75
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 63 66 69 71 75 69
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 43 50 57 65 69 73 77 75
SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 1 6 8 6 12 8 21 12 15 6 11
SHEAR DIR 64 47 11 20 2 10 13 353 351 355 341 353 203
SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 138 140 141 143 143 143 144 141 145 154 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 138 141 142 144 145 146 146 146 141 145 180 180
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 10 9 11 9 10 10 12 11
700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 62 57 63 58 61 58 59 61 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 30 28 25 8 14 20 55 57 63 75 -33
200 MB DIV 0 15 18 13 10 8 30 5 -18 -8 9 3 12
LAND (KM) 701 681 686 675 582 334 288 336 261 213 356 382 85
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.4 14.7 13.7 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.7 53.0 54.5 55.9 58.8 61.9 65.2 68.3 71.4 74.1 77.1 92.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 14 47 80
HEAT CONTENT 2 4 3 4 8 1 2 1 5 8 3 4 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 38. 42. 46. 48. 52. 53.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 41. 44. 46. 50. 50.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY