* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 07/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 48 48 48 49 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 48 48 48 49 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 10 4 6 7 3 4 3 6 2 2 7 7 5 SHEAR DIR 75 67 36 45 52 18 66 139 123 146 227 233 243 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 26.9 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 144 143 134 121 120 114 108 105 107 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 55 55 50 45 41 36 30 31 34 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 7 7 8 8 9 12 11 10 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -17 -11 -9 -5 25 53 73 64 47 33 33 200 MB DIV 38 23 19 -2 11 32 57 47 26 -4 -14 -25 -25 LAND (KM) 1639 1690 1748 1815 1890 2045 2192 2186 1869 1577 1308 1087 1246 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.8 17.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.9 124.0 125.3 126.5 129.1 131.6 134.4 137.3 140.0 142.5 144.7 143.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 13 13 14 14 13 11 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 6. 4. 5. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 27. 27. 25. 24. 22. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 23. 23. 23. 24. 21. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 07/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY