* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL832007 07/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 39 41 40 40 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 39 41 40 40 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 33 33 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 18 15 20 11 6 13 18 23 17 24 24 SHEAR DIR 133 135 151 153 149 179 194 241 246 249 255 248 252 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 122 124 124 123 121 121 124 127 129 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 120 124 123 122 120 118 118 120 122 121 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 63 62 55 54 57 53 53 49 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 39 48 68 79 103 70 52 14 13 5 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 20 47 40 -4 0 8 -31 -1 -6 -3 18 -4 9 LAND (KM) 1796 1763 1735 1730 1675 1492 1368 1292 1280 1244 1184 1042 950 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.7 19.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.1 36.0 37.4 38.7 41.5 44.5 47.4 49.9 51.9 53.6 55.9 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 13 15 16 14 12 11 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 7 7 8 8 6 3 3 4 3 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 15. 16. 16. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 15. 15. 14. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL832007 TEST 07/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL832007 TEST 07/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY