* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 07/31/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 49 58 63 69 73 77 77
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 49 58 63 69 73 77 71
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 29 34 42 49 56 61 67 66
SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 3 6 3 3 4 13 17 9 11 10 13
SHEAR DIR 64 98 93 56 76 348 12 334 329 316 329 325 240
SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 143 143 143 143 146 142 147 146 154 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 144 147 148 148 148 151 144 148 141 180 180
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 10 9 11 10 12 11 12 11 14
700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 63 62 63 59 61 57 56 50 51 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 30 23 20 13 28 41 56 75 36 14 -47
200 MB DIV 10 24 25 10 14 30 7 -19 1 4 36 9 -11
LAND (KM) 645 647 625 526 381 256 331 285 222 330 206 225 281
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.2 22.0
LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.5 54.8 56.4 57.9 61.2 64.7 68.2 71.7 74.9 77.7 79.0 92.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 11 39 71
HEAT CONTENT 2 1 5 4 5 6 4 8 8 5 4 6 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 35. 39. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 29. 38. 43. 50. 54. 59. 61.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 38. 43. 49. 53. 57. 57.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 07/31/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY