* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT EP082007 07/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 42 49 49 52 50 48 45 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 42 49 49 52 50 48 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 44 45 44 42 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 10 7 5 6 6 3 5 11 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 39 36 54 42 37 84 102 126 111 159 224 156 233 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.2 26.1 25.6 24.7 24.4 24.5 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 141 127 126 121 111 108 108 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 53 53 50 43 36 31 28 29 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 10 9 11 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -13 -11 -9 -7 6 37 58 61 60 40 29 16 200 MB DIV 24 23 9 3 8 43 56 18 15 -10 -39 -44 -19 LAND (KM) 1738 1808 1885 1977 2067 2244 2215 1892 1583 1286 1007 936 672 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 17.8 16.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.7 125.9 127.3 128.6 131.5 134.4 137.3 140.1 142.8 145.4 146.7 149.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 10 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 1. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 23. 23. 26. 22. 19. 17. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 19. 22. 20. 18. 15. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 EIGHT 07/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 EIGHT 07/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY