* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CHANTAL AL032007 08/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 46 47 53 59 54 47 40 32 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 46 47 53 59 54 47 40 32 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 37 35 33 33 34 36 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 29 30 32 45 55 52 36 29 27 26 26 25 26 SHEAR DIR 236 233 225 216 223 220 221 215 211 201 205 203 216 SST (C) 18.9 16.4 13.8 10.7 12.1 10.9 12.3 13.0 13.5 13.4 12.3 10.7 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 80 76 74 73 73 69 67 67 67 67 66 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 72 72 71 68 64 63 64 64 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -52.9 -51.5 -48.4 -45.8 -45.0 -45.5 -45.1 -45.1 -45.4 -47.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 53 50 47 49 58 54 60 66 64 58 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 19 22 24 24 29 37 34 28 22 20 13 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 45 77 87 132 201 234 190 192 199 171 101 63 200 MB DIV 46 38 56 48 29 79 80 48 46 20 -12 -19 -52 LAND (KM) 315 292 73 254 624 1255 1485 1326 1154 959 773 692 710 LAT (DEG N) 42.5 44.3 46.1 48.5 50.8 55.3 57.7 59.2 60.2 61.2 62.3 63.2 64.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 57.1 54.1 49.6 45.0 36.9 32.8 29.4 25.5 21.4 16.8 13.4 10.6 STM SPEED (KT) 24 28 33 38 36 24 14 11 11 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 24. 23. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 8. 15. 14. 9. 4. 2. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 15. 11. 3. -4. -12. -25. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 9. 2. -5. -13. -27. -43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL032007 CHANTAL 08/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032007 CHANTAL 08/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY