* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 55 62 68 73 78 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 55 62 68 73 78 82 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 61 68 75 82 78 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 4 2 5 6 6 15 8 11 5 9 14 SHEAR DIR 93 93 53 86 199 323 347 324 303 307 291 312 224 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.4 28.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 143 143 142 145 143 143 148 142 151 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 147 147 147 146 149 146 146 148 136 180 180 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 12 10 12 10 14 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 61 60 58 57 52 51 52 54 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 25 20 12 22 30 37 53 59 58 55 -57 200 MB DIV 19 20 8 13 20 9 2 -20 10 8 9 25 2 LAND (KM) 627 612 537 388 272 277 344 239 266 322 454 410 395 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 14.9 13.8 13.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.8 56.2 57.8 59.3 62.7 66.1 69.5 72.9 76.2 78.6 79.4 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 14 8 42 80 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 6 3 5 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 11. 10. 11. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 30. 37. 43. 49. 55. 59. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 30. 37. 43. 48. 53. 57. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY