* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT EP082007 08/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 40 45 47 48 49 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 40 45 47 48 49 51 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 36 35 35 35 36 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 10 10 11 11 12 8 13 6 7 4 5 SHEAR DIR 16 36 44 29 43 56 75 56 51 64 64 130 199 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 143 134 130 131 133 131 125 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 54 58 55 56 54 56 59 57 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -17 -21 -28 -16 -1 -2 1 8 11 12 8 200 MB DIV 19 19 9 5 23 50 53 50 8 1 -32 -24 -7 LAND (KM) 1789 1851 1916 1993 2073 2223 2392 2269 2066 1865 1663 1459 1247 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.0 126.0 127.1 128.1 130.3 132.4 134.4 136.4 138.4 140.4 142.4 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 17. 18. 19. 21. 21. 20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 EIGHT 08/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 EIGHT 08/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY