* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 48 57 64 71 76 81 84 84 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 48 57 64 71 76 81 76 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 44 52 59 67 76 84 82 90 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 3 3 5 10 11 14 6 7 10 5 4 SHEAR DIR 87 62 79 196 294 352 320 328 332 354 340 158 280 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 145 144 142 145 141 146 145 151 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 147 151 149 147 150 143 148 144 180 180 147 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 9 11 9 12 10 12 11 13 13 700-500 MB RH 64 66 61 61 60 57 59 54 55 52 54 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 18 9 15 36 44 50 68 53 55 -43 -38 200 MB DIV 16 4 17 24 24 -1 0 9 0 41 15 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 608 536 403 257 200 281 252 190 368 319 344 273 248 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.8 14.9 14.1 21.8 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.1 57.5 59.2 60.9 64.4 67.9 71.5 74.7 77.9 80.0 92.8 95.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 13 40 42 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 2 6 4 5 5 6 6 7 4 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 32. 39. 46. 52. 57. 61. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 39. 46. 51. 56. 59. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY