* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ERICK EP082007 08/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 42 46 50 53 55 54 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 42 46 50 53 55 54 51 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 42 43 45 46 46 46 46 47 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 11 9 10 10 3 9 14 8 5 3 6 SHEAR DIR 35 36 27 35 44 72 130 56 94 86 108 255 238 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 144 140 133 130 133 132 130 125 126 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 55 52 53 51 51 52 49 53 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -17 -23 -31 -26 -14 1 3 14 13 14 18 4 200 MB DIV 17 9 6 12 20 40 50 25 24 -9 -26 -14 -23 LAND (KM) 1863 1928 1996 2083 2167 2346 2371 2157 1974 1795 1628 1408 1174 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.9 126.9 128.1 129.3 131.5 133.4 135.5 137.4 139.2 140.8 143.1 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 10 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 23. 21. 17. 17. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 19. 16. 16. 16. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY