* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 51 59 64 71 76 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 51 59 64 71 76 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 50 56 62 70 65 74 SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 7 6 7 6 18 11 12 9 8 4 15 SHEAR DIR 328 275 235 304 310 307 304 281 304 290 323 84 52 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.6 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 144 142 145 142 145 149 146 154 168 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 150 149 147 150 146 147 150 145 180 179 142 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 11 10 12 11 12 10 14 11 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 63 55 54 53 46 47 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 10 16 27 37 41 60 53 36 6 -39 -20 200 MB DIV 0 21 27 34 22 7 -15 -4 -6 21 27 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 513 359 242 225 266 339 234 326 278 331 155 338 194 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.6 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 58.0 59.6 61.4 63.1 66.6 70.2 73.7 77.0 80.0 83.0 94.0 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 15 15 37 35 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 8 6 5 5 6 5 3 3 7 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 27. 34. 40. 47. 53. 59. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 26. 34. 39. 46. 51. 57. 57. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY