* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ERICK EP082007 08/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 36 37 42 46 48 48 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 36 37 42 46 48 48 47 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 38 39 40 41 41 41 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 7 8 5 5 12 10 14 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 52 36 32 45 56 128 35 66 72 69 52 66 255 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 141 132 128 130 132 131 127 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 55 55 50 53 56 57 61 54 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 9 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -20 -35 -36 -38 -19 5 7 19 16 18 10 2 200 MB DIV 11 0 6 17 45 42 46 57 41 -23 -19 -17 -16 LAND (KM) 1885 1951 2020 2102 2186 2300 2424 2245 2070 1890 1722 1546 1379 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.2 129.2 131.0 132.8 134.6 136.4 138.2 139.8 141.6 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 19. 17. 14. 13. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY