* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 08/01/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 61 69 75 82 87 88
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 61 69 75 70 75 76
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 57 68 67 79 87
SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 9 12 9 12 14 5 2 6 6 7 10
SHEAR DIR 274 206 316 337 344 299 314 320 317 354 152 351 36
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 142 141 143 144 146 150 148 153 160 157 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 147 148 150 150 151 153 149 175 177 146 139
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 10 12 11 13 11 13 13 15
700-500 MB RH 63 59 60 63 60 56 54 51 49 52 52 48 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 16 32 45 54 69 65 34 24 -31 -28 -24
200 MB DIV 14 28 23 5 8 10 -8 -3 40 11 -5 13 0
LAND (KM) 317 203 207 244 298 213 290 267 295 34 240 134 13
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 15.8 20.6 21.5 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 58.4 60.0 61.6 63.5 65.4 69.3 73.3 77.0 80.6 83.8 93.5 95.9 97.7
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 19 19 19 19 18 16 33 32 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 61 58 41 35 42 72 53 111 76 61 42 61 39
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 38. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 26. 36. 45. 52. 58. 64. 66.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 36. 44. 50. 57. 62. 63.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/01/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY