* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ERICK EP082007 08/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 42 45 49 50 50 48 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 42 45 49 50 50 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 42 43 45 45 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 9 11 12 4 8 4 3 1 8 8 11 SHEAR DIR 38 43 40 45 73 129 38 91 42 165 283 269 274 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 138 134 128 128 130 130 128 123 121 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 52 55 53 54 55 54 53 46 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -24 -27 -27 -23 0 5 13 18 29 27 28 15 200 MB DIV 8 4 15 35 40 32 31 37 -1 -16 -4 -8 -35 LAND (KM) 1972 2038 2106 2167 2224 2322 2302 2125 1986 1834 1660 1492 1315 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.6 128.5 129.4 130.2 131.8 133.9 135.6 137.0 138.5 140.2 141.9 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 10. 14. 15. 15. 13. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 ERICK 08/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY