* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 62 69 75 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 51 62 69 53 61 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 46 54 46 54 60 65 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 8 5 11 17 6 9 12 10 12 22 15 SHEAR DIR 215 282 292 305 260 290 294 309 280 319 334 31 57 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.4 29.1 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 144 146 143 149 148 153 148 154 159 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 147 151 152 149 153 151 167 154 145 146 136 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 12 11 10 12 11 13 11 15 12 17 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 57 56 54 50 47 49 49 43 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 34 40 42 56 59 21 4 -61 -70 -56 -53 200 MB DIV 22 22 15 19 8 -11 9 17 12 5 -2 -22 -27 LAND (KM) 223 230 266 324 297 224 272 215 215 -44 252 261 143 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.1 20.4 21.4 22.6 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.9 61.7 63.5 65.5 67.4 71.4 75.3 79.1 82.7 90.0 92.7 94.9 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 19 20 19 18 28 26 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 41 37 49 71 61 86 105 82 9999 54 81 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 36. 43. 49. 53. 55. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 37. 44. 50. 53. 55. 54. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY