* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ERICK EP082007 08/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 47 49 52 53 55 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 47 49 52 53 55 52 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 40 42 42 43 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 10 12 11 4 11 3 3 1 5 7 9 SHEAR DIR 33 44 55 82 93 49 64 71 46 258 294 295 311 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 134 131 127 129 130 126 122 118 119 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 52 50 56 54 53 57 59 59 56 53 46 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -13 -15 -9 -10 3 0 4 14 34 30 21 15 200 MB DIV 9 23 36 31 41 38 31 24 -12 -16 -13 -32 -27 LAND (KM) 2094 2158 2213 2255 2299 2401 2210 2019 1869 1724 1589 1411 1212 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.2 132.8 134.8 136.6 138.0 139.4 140.7 142.5 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 9 9 8 7 7 7 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 18. 16. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. 17. 16. 15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 ERICK 08/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 ERICK 08/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY