* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 08/02/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 47 56 63 70 76 80 81
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 47 56 63 70 65 69 49
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 46 52 56 65 50
SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 7 14 21 13 9 13 9 6 9 9
SHEAR DIR 296 307 321 291 306 313 327 307 356 49 342 50 20
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 142 144 146 143 150 148 149 160 165 153 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 147 152 153 148 155 150 149 178 177 139 134
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 14
700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 56 53 52 52 53 55 48 45 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 35 46 43 47 72 68 32 12 18 -28 -22 -18
200 MB DIV 19 18 17 7 -3 0 0 50 20 38 4 -15 -2
LAND (KM) 201 238 272 313 240 224 277 270 170 118 207 71 -91
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.0 16.8 21.8 23.1 23.9
LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.9 64.5 66.5 68.5 72.4 76.2 79.9 83.2 86.8 95.2 97.1 98.7
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 20 20 19 19 17 16 31 29 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 48 35 37 52 73 55 97 86 82 77 75 41 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 23. 31. 37. 44. 51. 55. 59.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 31. 38. 45. 51. 55. 56.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY