* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/02/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 47 57 63 70 76 82 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 47 57 46 36 47 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 34 34 46 41 31 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 14 24 27 12 12 8 3 4 3 10 12 SHEAR DIR 285 285 288 300 309 318 329 281 354 170 243 289 347 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.6 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 141 145 149 149 158 151 157 156 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 154 149 153 157 154 160 148 161 153 138 139 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 11 10 9 11 10 13 10 13 11 18 13 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 53 57 62 58 62 55 63 55 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 58 55 62 77 81 33 18 -21 -12 -10 0 -11 200 MB DIV 9 28 23 1 12 8 18 30 13 10 -13 13 3 LAND (KM) 237 239 156 136 255 293 223 225 -103 -11 38 -75 -245 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.1 18.5 21.8 22.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 67.1 69.1 71.3 73.4 77.7 81.7 85.4 88.7 92.3 96.9 98.6 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 21 18 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 51 64 49 43 110 71 75 9999 39 53 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 31. 38. 46. 53. 59. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 32. 38. 45. 51. 57. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY