* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/02/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 52 60 68 73 77 82 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 52 60 60 45 49 54 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 54 35 48 59 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 23 24 17 10 3 5 2 7 3 7 10 SHEAR DIR 285 290 305 312 305 304 301 295 260 34 105 19 3 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 140 145 149 148 154 151 147 154 154 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 148 154 159 155 158 151 141 154 150 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 12 11 12 11 13 11 14 15 16 700-500 MB RH 60 59 54 57 58 59 60 58 57 62 54 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 57 67 85 59 22 -14 -37 -17 -11 -6 -5 200 MB DIV 31 32 19 10 37 6 48 5 9 31 -6 23 0 LAND (KM) 251 168 138 248 363 325 157 -7 22 60 9 -184 -324 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.7 17.2 18.9 20.2 18.9 22.5 23.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 69.1 71.1 73.3 75.5 79.9 84.0 87.6 90.7 93.6 97.8 99.6 101.0 STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 21 22 22 22 20 18 14 17 18 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 67 50 44 76 86 88 71 16 26 39 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 20. 28. 37. 43. 49. 55. 60. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 22. 30. 38. 43. 47. 52. 57. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/02/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY