* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ERICK EP082007 08/02/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 15 16 16 16 18 19 22 27 32 35 40 V (KT) LAND 20 17 15 16 16 16 18 19 22 27 32 35 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 11 10 11 6 3 1 7 6 8 7 7 SHEAR DIR 36 47 31 31 24 85 343 267 341 343 345 323 326 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 130 129 131 127 121 120 122 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 55 53 53 54 49 43 40 44 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -21 -23 -28 -39 -33 -29 -13 1 7 8 5 2 200 MB DIV 27 11 3 -2 -9 -19 -22 -37 -33 -3 -35 -30 -27 LAND (KM) 2277 2349 2424 2321 2214 2043 1780 1547 1342 1170 1037 868 686 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.8 132.8 133.8 134.8 136.4 139.0 141.3 143.3 145.1 146.7 148.7 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 12 10 9 8 9 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP082007 ERICK 08/02/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082007 ERICK 08/02/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY