* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 08/03/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 44 52 60 67 70 74 80 83 86
V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 44 52 60 41 48 46 44 32 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 48 36 45 52 47 33 29
SHEAR (KTS) 9 17 20 17 10 12 8 10 15 10 10 8 11
SHEAR DIR 265 296 289 313 261 294 231 236 255 79 258 334 290
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.4 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 147 151 150 152 155 145 160 151 154 151 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 156 161 158 158 156 141 152 147 149 135 132
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 13 11 14 11 14 9 18 13 19
700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 54 54 51 55 54 48 65 51 52 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 63 57 45 5 -16 -50 -41 -11 -7 -13 -3
200 MB DIV 36 4 22 32 5 16 18 9 -4 14 13 0 1
LAND (KM) 183 178 325 283 220 238 102 -21 318 -22 -71 -232 -379
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 17.3 19.2 20.9 22.8 18.6 23.2 24.4 25.4
LONG(DEG W) 69.3 71.6 73.8 76.1 78.3 82.6 86.5 89.9 92.7 95.6 98.5 100.1 101.4
STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 23 23 22 21 19 17 15 14 18 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 68 54 53 96 111 90 81 9999 77 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 34. 38. 43. 50. 54. 56.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 37. 40. 44. 50. 53. 56.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/03/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/03/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY