* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 08/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 28 28 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 17 15 15 14 2 12 20 31 33 31 28 SHEAR DIR 65 79 97 103 102 153 208 180 207 210 223 239 241 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.3 23.2 22.0 21.0 20.5 19.9 17.2 17.2 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 137 128 118 96 82 72 68 64 65 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 700-500 MB RH 71 66 64 60 55 55 45 40 37 30 25 28 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 26 14 0 -6 -22 -20 -32 -8 23 32 8 200 MB DIV 8 17 13 11 6 12 -11 6 1 -2 1 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 952 989 1008 1032 1074 1145 1212 1217 1051 673 163 -276 -930 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.8 22.3 24.4 26.9 30.1 33.7 36.2 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.5 118.5 119.7 120.8 123.3 125.4 126.6 126.7 125.1 121.7 117.2 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 12 14 20 22 27 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -14. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -5. -15. -23. -32. -39. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -18. -25. -32. -39. -44. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 08/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 08/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY