* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL992007 08/04/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 46 53 61 68 73 79 85 86
V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 33
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 37
SHEAR (KTS) 21 14 11 7 14 14 16 12 10 14 16 5 6
SHEAR DIR 236 228 205 188 178 175 185 212 225 231 252 341 285
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.5 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 151 158 163 160 156 158 160 162 169 161 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 161 159 162 169 173 167 156 151 147 144 158 156 143
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 11 13 12 10 14 11 17 9 15 9 11
700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 64 68 65 65 63 60 54 56 69 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 28 18 25 22 -11 5 -16 -3 -4 30 15 16
200 MB DIV 51 24 21 58 48 10 9 -2 23 20 11 13 41
LAND (KM) 312 59 -99 -29 -65 -107 -150 -302 -337 -264 -186 84 132
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.1 17.3 18.8 20.5 21.7 23.1 23.3 18.0 18.7
LONG(DEG W) 80.3 82.7 85.0 87.3 89.6 93.8 97.5 100.3 102.0 103.2 104.1 104.2 106.0
STM SPEED (KT) 25 23 23 23 22 20 17 13 9 6 13 12 9
HEAT CONTENT 69 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 27 CX,CY: -26/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 36. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 32. 39. 44. 50. 56. 59.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 31. 38. 43. 49. 55. 56.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/04/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/04/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY