* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 08/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 14 11 11 2 3 10 24 36 43 39 35 SHEAR DIR 69 79 92 95 106 222 256 235 215 217 212 227 220 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.1 25.1 23.2 21.9 21.4 21.2 20.6 19.1 16.2 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 135 126 115 95 81 77 75 70 65 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 59 60 54 47 43 41 33 24 24 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 36 17 5 -3 -19 -19 -43 -46 -24 2 32 31 200 MB DIV 13 18 9 0 -12 -8 7 17 -2 0 -21 0 16 LAND (KM) 1067 1100 1145 1188 1245 1297 1349 1341 1136 825 409 -83 -636 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.2 18.8 20.3 21.9 23.9 26.8 29.8 33.3 36.5 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.9 120.1 121.3 122.5 124.8 126.7 127.7 128.0 127.0 124.7 120.5 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 13 15 18 21 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -1. -8. -16. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -7. -16. -26. -36. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -8. -17. -26. -35. -42. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 08/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 08/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY