* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992007 08/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 51 60 70 77 82 85 88 89 V (KT) LAND 30 27 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 32 SHEAR (KTS) 10 3 2 6 8 12 7 10 15 14 13 13 9 SHEAR DIR 220 239 199 202 159 185 167 182 192 225 239 196 330 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.3 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 152 156 162 160 153 155 159 162 167 172 169 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 157 162 168 164 154 153 152 151 152 160 145 169 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 10 9 13 10 16 10 14 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 72 70 68 67 64 62 60 60 57 47 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 25 25 10 2 0 7 7 20 45 40 54 16 200 MB DIV 28 49 57 40 30 21 16 40 46 10 -4 19 -7 LAND (KM) 4 -41 13 -29 -202 -22 -169 -285 -259 -121 -29 -133 104 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 18.0 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.2 22.9 26.1 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 85.2 87.1 89.0 90.9 94.5 97.9 100.6 102.7 104.4 105.7 107.3 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 19 19 18 18 16 13 10 8 11 5 26 HEAT CONTENT 16 9999 81 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 40. 48. 54. 57. 60. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 40. 47. 52. 55. 58. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL992007 INVEST 08/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992007 INVEST 08/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY