* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 53 59 63 66 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 43 53 59 63 66 66 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 39 43 44 45 44 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 6 4 5 4 2 4 8 13 16 13 14 SHEAR DIR 353 7 11 328 339 348 119 114 141 168 172 177 89 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 26.9 26.2 26.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 148 149 148 145 143 133 126 125 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 72 74 77 76 75 70 62 60 58 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -43 -50 -50 -50 -55 -45 -34 -15 4 29 43 34 200 MB DIV 19 21 27 20 13 49 59 24 11 39 49 38 80 LAND (KM) 1158 1222 1296 1363 1392 1489 1630 1777 1948 2130 2291 2306 2494 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.5 113.7 115.0 116.3 119.0 121.8 124.5 127.2 129.7 131.9 133.8 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 28. 35. 39. 41. 40. 43. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 28. 34. 38. 41. 41. 44. 44. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY