* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/05/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 58 65 65 65 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 58 65 65 65 66 68 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 41 42 41 41 SHEAR (KTS) 12 4 3 5 8 2 9 11 15 15 17 15 12 SHEAR DIR 15 38 293 343 1 69 129 155 162 185 168 142 107 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.8 28.0 27.2 26.3 26.4 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 148 149 144 146 137 127 128 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 65 69 72 74 76 76 75 70 64 58 54 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -51 -49 -53 -57 -55 -41 -21 3 29 35 48 39 200 MB DIV 18 20 20 17 31 37 29 -2 8 31 23 37 89 LAND (KM) 1274 1351 1399 1429 1472 1624 1758 1934 2117 2299 2296 2123 2238 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.3 14.3 13.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.4 115.6 116.9 118.2 121.0 123.8 126.6 129.3 131.8 133.9 135.8 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 2 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 9. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 36. 38. 38. 39. 40. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 24. 33. 40. 40. 40. 41. 43. 42. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/05/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/05/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY