* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/06/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 55 58 54 50 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 55 58 54 50 45 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 31 28 24 20 17 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 5 6 1 11 9 13 22 23 28 32 N/A SHEAR DIR 304 316 289 252 241 173 182 171 169 194 193 214 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.6 26.9 25.8 24.7 24.3 23.4 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 148 141 134 123 111 106 97 94 95 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 71 70 69 66 62 54 53 49 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -44 -39 -44 -45 -46 -24 -8 14 8 -2 -3 N/A 200 MB DIV 29 35 15 0 0 -1 20 26 18 39 15 43 N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1346 1372 1416 1457 1560 1716 1880 2046 2199 2023 1799 1611 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.9 19.2 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.4 118.3 119.4 120.5 123.0 125.6 128.5 131.3 133.6 135.5 137.6 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 28. 26. 23. 18. 14. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 33. 29. 25. 20. 16. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/06/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/06/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY