* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 44 42 37 34 33 23 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 44 42 37 34 33 23 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 2 7 11 13 11 17 23 28 28 34 40 44 SHEAR DIR 267 257 182 177 185 191 175 193 208 217 221 231 227 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 25.7 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.4 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 143 140 135 122 112 105 100 96 95 95 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 69 67 66 59 57 50 43 36 28 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 7 8 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -61 -63 -63 -54 -28 -10 13 -3 -16 -14 -10 -29 200 MB DIV -10 -4 -2 -17 -12 19 46 32 30 33 11 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1438 1472 1507 1556 1615 1780 1920 2100 2092 1905 1707 1554 1496 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.8 121.8 123.0 124.2 126.8 129.5 132.4 134.9 136.6 138.5 140.1 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 10 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -9. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 6. 11. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 20. 14. 10. 8. -2. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 19. 18. 12. 9. 8. -2. -8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/07/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY