* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/07/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 43 42 41 38 41 34 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 43 42 41 38 41 34 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 25 23 21 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 8 7 6 13 9 14 15 26 28 35 42 SHEAR DIR 173 202 196 192 171 168 197 198 210 204 219 218 247 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 143 141 129 124 120 111 105 103 105 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 65 67 67 60 59 55 51 46 40 32 29 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -49 -42 -36 -27 -3 6 13 1 2 3 31 -44 200 MB DIV -28 -27 -16 0 8 11 6 -2 7 17 35 1 -36 LAND (KM) 1604 1657 1715 1801 1893 2065 2272 2047 1765 1502 1289 1141 896 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.3 19.8 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.7 124.7 126.0 127.2 130.1 133.0 135.6 138.1 140.5 142.5 143.9 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 8 14 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 16. 17. 16. 12. 14. 8. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 18. 17. 16. 13. 16. 9. 3. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/07/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/07/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY