* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922007 08/07/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 37 44 47 46 41 35 32 31 31 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 37 44 47 46 41 35 32 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 21 19 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 14 19 17 17 19 12 13 9 12 11 6 6 9 SHEAR DIR 65 63 65 59 83 90 73 109 119 141 111 101 92 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.5 27.1 26.3 24.8 23.6 23.1 23.1 22.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 156 149 142 138 129 113 99 93 92 91 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 70 69 60 53 49 38 37 37 39 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 36 33 44 52 37 11 8 37 39 63 50 200 MB DIV 71 53 19 46 41 45 20 15 0 -13 -2 4 45 LAND (KM) 72 147 223 356 488 556 741 932 1091 1253 1417 1552 1889 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.4 21.5 21.2 21.3 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 105.1 106.6 108.3 110.0 113.5 117.2 120.3 123.2 125.3 127.0 128.6 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 14 12 9 7 12 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 23. 19. 14. 10. 8. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 27. 26. 21. 15. 12. 11. 11. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP922007 INVEST 08/07/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922007 INVEST 08/07/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY