* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/08/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 44 47 50 48 47 47 39 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 44 47 50 48 47 47 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 26 23 19 16 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 4 4 9 11 9 12 19 34 37 45 44 SHEAR DIR 164 152 94 110 152 156 157 201 186 210 208 221 232 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 26.6 26.2 25.7 24.7 24.2 24.2 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 146 142 131 127 122 111 105 105 109 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 71 68 66 65 60 57 55 46 38 34 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -42 -39 -34 -28 0 10 32 18 17 9 16 2 200 MB DIV -25 -15 -7 10 25 11 16 21 23 35 7 4 -15 LAND (KM) 1679 1757 1839 1930 2020 2213 2248 1918 1613 1348 1121 925 736 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.5 125.6 127.0 128.3 131.1 134.0 136.9 139.6 142.0 144.1 146.0 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 8. 11. 16. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 20. 24. 23. 21. 20. 13. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 12. 19. 22. 25. 23. 22. 22. 14. 8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/08/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/08/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY