* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922007 08/08/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 42 40 35 30 27 26 27 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 42 40 35 30 27 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 20 18 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 18 19 16 14 15 9 13 6 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 63 65 53 80 92 82 97 105 140 151 114 102 89 SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.9 25.7 24.2 22.9 22.6 22.6 22.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 156 149 142 138 135 123 106 92 87 87 89 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 68 66 59 52 44 39 36 36 36 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 36 31 41 51 46 28 0 26 30 50 56 58 200 MB DIV 53 18 47 39 57 30 20 1 2 -17 -5 -4 20 LAND (KM) 142 221 343 477 499 646 816 1000 1144 1335 1471 1646 1932 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.0 21.8 21.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.5 108.0 109.7 111.4 114.9 118.5 121.6 124.3 126.6 128.0 129.7 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 14 12 8 8 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 19. 19. 14. 9. 6. 4. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 22. 20. 15. 10. 7. 6. 7. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP922007 INVEST 08/08/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922007 INVEST 08/08/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY