* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL812007 08/08/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 23 27 30 33 37 37 38 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 23 27 30 33 37 37 38 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 16 13 12 10 13 13 7 14 13 13 8 SHEAR DIR 109 109 104 102 98 132 145 173 163 145 153 153 109 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 123 123 121 121 120 119 120 123 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 119 118 118 115 114 112 111 112 117 122 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 45 46 43 43 42 41 36 36 37 38 41 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 31 27 15 9 4 -4 -3 -6 -6 -16 -23 200 MB DIV -13 -21 -19 -14 -27 -21 -31 19 -11 -28 -3 -23 -36 LAND (KM) 1731 1805 1781 1762 1747 1717 1625 1571 1524 1459 1338 1187 1016 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.0 36.8 38.3 39.5 40.5 41.5 42.5 43.9 45.5 47.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 14 15 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 17. 18. 19. 18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL812007 TEST 08/08/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL812007 TEST 08/08/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY