* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 08/08/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 40 44 46 45 42 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 40 44 46 45 42 38 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 18 16 SHEAR (KTS) 6 12 11 12 12 10 11 18 21 27 30 28 41 SHEAR DIR 81 70 92 108 113 122 132 168 200 220 226 223 237 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.4 26.3 25.4 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 144 139 129 128 119 109 105 105 109 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 62 57 54 52 42 39 33 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -33 -23 -7 0 2 18 29 27 32 41 38 24 200 MB DIV -10 -1 9 24 26 9 21 23 41 11 11 9 -6 LAND (KM) 1815 1893 1974 2076 2163 2324 2110 1799 1492 1241 1036 869 773 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.8 18.0 18.8 19.5 19.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.0 127.0 128.4 129.7 132.5 135.3 138.0 140.7 143.0 144.9 146.5 147.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 16. 11. 8. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 17. 13. 10. 7. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 08/08/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 08/08/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY