* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NINE EP092007 08/08/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 41 44 48 49 50 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 41 44 48 49 50 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 14 12 12 13 13 13 8 4 1 11 8 SHEAR DIR 59 81 101 108 105 87 91 112 88 171 249 218 239 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 140 136 130 130 129 124 117 115 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 59 59 60 54 48 43 37 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -27 -4 5 4 19 26 46 45 49 43 34 10 200 MB DIV 4 10 22 25 13 28 16 40 41 33 0 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 1893 1971 2052 2127 2200 2354 2200 1968 1742 1504 1283 1081 906 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.1 128.1 129.2 130.2 132.4 134.7 136.8 138.9 141.1 143.1 144.9 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 25. 25. 24. 24. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 24. 25. 24. 25. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 NINE 08/08/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 NINE 08/08/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY