* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/09/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 50 53 59 63 68 67 64 63 62 59
V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 50 53 59 63 68 67 64 63 62 59
V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 46 48 48 47 46 45 45 46 46
SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 11 13 15 15 17 13 10 3 3 7 8
SHEAR DIR 76 86 88 87 85 71 91 82 76 23 253 293 248
SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 140 137 135 136 137 132 126 123 122 121 119
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 63 60 63 58 58 56 56 55 50 43 37 35 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 13 12 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -12 -1 0 4 28 34 52 51 56 50 29 7
200 MB DIV 23 25 31 19 22 49 38 68 35 13 -1 16 8
LAND (KM) 2054 2153 2243 2335 2431 2248 1982 1755 1536 1318 1102 888 680
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9
LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.9 130.0 131.2 132.4 134.8 137.4 139.6 141.6 143.6 145.6 147.6 149.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 11. 9. 9. 7. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 21. 25. 30. 30. 28. 27. 25. 23.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 15. 18. 24. 28. 33. 32. 29. 28. 27. 24.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY