* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/09/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 59 64 67 69 64 64 63 62 57 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 59 64 67 69 64 64 63 62 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 58 60 62 61 59 57 55 54 54 53 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 12 14 13 14 17 12 5 3 1 4 8 SHEAR DIR 86 61 71 74 78 69 75 74 59 58 51 98 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 134 133 135 135 130 124 122 120 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 64 61 60 60 57 59 54 47 45 43 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 10 11 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 0 13 32 40 53 49 38 24 16 -1 -16 200 MB DIV 39 36 28 32 39 52 71 40 23 0 18 22 19 LAND (KM) 2154 2235 2316 2404 2393 2159 1960 1737 1512 1269 1038 823 628 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.0 131.0 132.2 133.3 135.6 137.5 139.6 141.7 143.9 146.0 148.0 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 17. 22. 25. 27. 22. 21. 20. 19. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 14. 19. 22. 24. 19. 19. 18. 17. 12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY