* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/09/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 56 59 62 64 62 59 56 55 56 53 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 56 59 62 64 62 59 56 55 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 55 56 55 54 51 50 49 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 13 13 13 18 17 16 6 6 5 11 16 SHEAR DIR 71 78 88 87 77 79 80 93 101 111 129 151 182 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 136 136 137 134 129 125 125 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 60 58 57 54 49 44 42 40 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 8 30 37 32 41 37 27 15 1 -14 -23 200 MB DIV 42 31 43 34 38 51 51 10 9 -1 18 4 3 LAND (KM) 2289 2390 2463 2337 2212 2007 1809 1600 1387 1184 1006 783 528 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.1 14.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.6 132.8 134.0 135.2 137.2 139.2 141.2 143.2 145.2 147.2 149.2 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 11. 10. 10. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 17. 14. 11. 10. 11. 8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY