* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/09/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 63 65 66 63 58 58 58 56 54 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 63 65 66 63 58 58 58 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 55 56 56 55 54 53 54 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 13 13 13 14 13 10 5 1 5 13 15 SHEAR DIR 72 85 86 76 75 80 83 90 45 131 130 178 182 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 136 137 135 130 125 126 125 122 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 55 58 56 57 54 49 47 42 41 38 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 29 41 44 42 41 39 27 25 4 -16 -34 200 MB DIV 41 42 38 37 38 56 20 9 15 5 7 17 7 LAND (KM) 2417 2441 2317 2207 2097 1888 1682 1478 1273 1042 778 583 452 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.2 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.0 134.2 135.3 136.3 138.3 140.3 142.3 144.3 146.5 149.0 151.0 152.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7. 7. 8. 4. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 13. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/09/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY