* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 67 69 68 65 62 59 56 52 52 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 67 69 68 65 62 59 56 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 63 63 61 59 56 54 53 51 48 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 13 14 15 12 16 7 5 6 13 17 19 SHEAR DIR 86 94 79 87 89 76 84 94 144 166 161 193 187 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 137 137 134 128 125 125 123 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 60 57 51 47 43 40 39 41 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 30 33 33 31 40 32 24 25 19 0 -19 -35 200 MB DIV 41 40 51 45 41 21 19 22 28 9 12 5 23 LAND (KM) 2440 2334 2229 2122 2016 1794 1595 1367 1133 889 683 495 327 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 133.1 134.2 135.2 136.2 137.2 139.3 141.2 143.3 145.5 147.8 149.9 151.9 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 10. 7. 4. 1. -3. -3. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY