* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/10/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 61 62 60 59 57 56 53 50 49 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 61 62 60 59 57 56 53 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 56 55 55 55 55 54 51 47 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 10 11 12 10 10 2 6 9 20 27 28 SHEAR DIR 95 84 107 115 113 98 132 178 195 156 176 196 212 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 135 129 125 125 125 123 122 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 60 57 52 48 42 41 40 38 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 26 28 29 38 36 32 22 4 -17 -32 -48 200 MB DIV 32 33 29 24 16 14 7 5 6 -12 0 15 0 LAND (KM) 2319 2199 2080 1969 1858 1643 1430 1210 991 769 548 355 259 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.5 136.6 137.7 138.7 140.7 142.7 144.8 147.0 149.2 151.5 153.8 156.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY