* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 70 72 70 69 66 63 59 56 54 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 70 72 70 69 66 63 59 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 64 64 64 63 62 62 59 56 52 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 10 8 6 9 3 2 3 10 16 20 19 SHEAR DIR 91 114 123 117 81 84 137 123 139 166 187 199 221 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 135 132 127 127 126 124 124 124 125 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 63 65 59 61 55 51 49 48 45 46 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 25 28 34 31 27 16 -2 -20 -23 -37 -43 200 MB DIV 40 29 22 22 29 31 7 12 7 6 -2 28 16 LAND (KM) 2209 2082 1956 1833 1711 1489 1275 1061 847 625 398 282 275 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.7 137.9 139.1 140.2 142.3 144.4 146.5 148.6 151.0 153.9 156.1 157.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 12 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY