* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/10/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 84 83 80 77 73 66 62 58 53 49 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 84 83 80 77 73 66 62 58 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 84 85 84 80 76 72 68 64 58 52 47 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 9 6 7 8 3 7 16 24 23 21 25 SHEAR DIR 111 123 114 95 104 117 132 157 170 202 219 227 239 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 133 130 127 127 127 124 124 124 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 60 61 56 51 47 49 48 42 42 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 23 27 28 20 17 6 -2 -8 -19 -34 -39 200 MB DIV 25 16 22 25 23 5 -1 8 -15 -10 -2 16 11 LAND (KM) 2089 1965 1843 1724 1605 1370 1136 893 633 395 239 285 388 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.8 139.0 140.2 141.3 143.5 145.8 148.3 151.0 153.6 156.1 158.1 159.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 1. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/10/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY